EconFact 10/31: Just when you thought (Debt Ceiling Facts) Were Over….

Raise the roof!
Raise the roof!

This week, 27 Republican Senators voted to disapprove their votes to raise the debt ceiling. It’s certainly an usual response to the tradition of fulfilling the US obligations but then again, this time round, the debt ceiling crisis ended in an unusual way.

Just to recap, on Oct 1, Treasury Secretary Jack Lew sent Congress a letterstating that the Treasury will exhaust its ability to pay the nation’s bills if Congress does not raise the debt ceiling. the debt ceiling is a theoretical limit on the number of outstanding debt via bonds the Treasury can issue.

Historically, the debt ceiling has been raised to a number: For example, in the last debt ceiling crisis on 2011, Congress approved to raise the debt ceiling$2.1-2.4 trillion dollars. Easy enough to understand right?

However, this time round, the debt ceiling is raised to a date: Feb 7, 2014. There is no stated limit to how much debt the Treasury can issue to fulfill obligations.

This has several implications and questions. The first easily being that this gives a new set of tools the Treasury can use to pay debts when Feb.7 2014 hits and thus entities that own US debt will not freak out as much next time round (not that they truly freaked out last time). The second is that this measure may eliminate debt ceiling issues as we know it. There is a provision in new bill called ‘The McConnell Rule’ (named for Minority Leader Mitch McConnell) let’s the president raise the debt limit instead of Congress and that raise is subject to Congress’ approval. This may eliminate future default fears and allow US to join all other governments in the world that have no stated debt limit.

 

But I have some questions that economists I have talked to and news articles don’t answer for me. Why doesn’t the Treasury issue enough debt now to stave off any default fears for the rest of President Obama’s term then? What other extraordinary tricks does the Treasury have because of this provision? How many policymakers in Washington understand that this is really, really important?

I think the last question may be the scariest one of all…MUAHAHAHAHAHAHA.

Also some SPOOOOOKKKY links: 

 

^v^ Happy Halloweeen ^v^ 

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EconFact 10/08: Dealing with Debt

An anonymous reader messaged me today asking to “explain the debt ceiling in layman’s” terms…I’ll give it a shot.

 

What is it? 

The debt ceiling is a theoretical limit on how much the United States government can borrow through issuing Treasuries also known as federal bonds. Treasuries act as an “I-O-U” paper promising regular interest payments as well as a principal payment. I say it’s “theoretical” because there is no hard-and-fast rule in the Constitution or any legal source saying it needs to be a certain size. It is currently near $17 trillion dollars.

 

Is it a US thing?

Pretty much.

 

How does this practice compare to other countries? 

Let’s just talk big economies here. The UK and Canada’s Treasury can borrow however much they want. The EU has a stated goal of keeping government debt to 60% of GDP but it’s not a law. China probably laughs at the idea of a debt ceiling considering their debt.

 

What would happen if it were abolished?
It would be easier to borrow money by issuing Treasuries and the world wouldn’t have to freak out that much. But, it may freak out so-called “fiscal conservatives” who are worried that the United States has too much debt anyway.

 

What happens it’s not raised? 

So, it’s technically not raised since May 2013 and the US Treasury has been using what they call “extraordinary” measures to issue new debt. On Oct 17, Secretary Lew estimates the government will not have enough cash one hand to make payments. These can range from Social Security Checks, government benefits to interest payments to international investors. People are really freaking out because the United States has always made their payments (well, sorta) and the US Treasury has been the “benchmark” financial instrument for many rate calculations.

Two things, if I can be a little technical. The first is that the Federal Reserve, which holds a lot of Treasuries, may technically be insolvent because it would be hard to value the Treasuries on hand if the United States defaults. The second is that since the Treasury is a “benchmark” financial instrument” it can have the consequences equivalent to changing what a “centimeter” is for physics (yeah, take that science).

 

Has it ever been lowered?
No.

 

Can it be lowered?
Theoretically, yes.

 

Are Democrats or Republicans more likely to raise the debt ceiling?
The debt ceiling has been raised under Republican and Democrats controlled Congress and Presidents and a mix between.

 

How can we keep raising it? What’s the point of it?
This comes back to how the US governs itself. The debt limit was seen as a formality because it is just a bill acknowledging payment for things the US government has already bought. Just imagine the budget being what you order at the restaurant and the debt ceiling paying you credit card bill afterwards: the money has been spent already. It is a Congressional issue because Congress has the power of the purse according the Constitution.

The issue comes when you have the worst Congress ever (factually proven) being an obstacle for almost everything done in the Obama administration.

How does the 14th Amendment factor in to this? 

Part of the 14th Amendment says:

“The validity of the public debt of the United States, authorized by law, including debts incurred for payment of pensions and bounties for services in suppressing insurrection or rebellion, shall not be questioned.”

This implies that the President may have executive power to raise the debt ceiling. However, this has never been done in history and the President Obama has ruled it out.

 

Do you have any cool facts about the debt ceiling? 

Yes –

  • The debt ceiling has been raised 14 times since 2001.
  • It has been raised 78 times total; under President Reagan’s administration it has been raised 18 times.
  • The debt ceiling has been in law since 1917 to fund the US entering World War I.
  • The mere debate of a debt ceiling talk has consequences: S&P, a rantings agency, downgraded US Treasuries in 2011, (the “I-O-U’s the US gives out), partly because of debt ceiling dysfunctions and partly because the US owes a lot of money.
  • The debt ceiling has been raised at an accelerating pace – Present Bush and Obama’s presidency has raised the debt ceiling from $6 trillion to $16 trillion.

Takeaway: Breaching the debt ceiling is bad news bears.

EconFact 09/20: Shadowing the SOMC

The Shadow knows!

The Shadow knows!

Today I got a chance to visit the Cornell Club in New York   to attend the Shadow Open Market Committee or ‘SOMC’ for short.

The SOMC is a gathering of economists, pundits and central bankers who respond to the Federal Open Market Comittee or FOMC for short which is where the Federal Reserve  comes together to announce big decisions regarding policy actions.

This SOMC gathering is especially notable because it comes right after the FOMC meeting earlier this week that decided to not taper, or in layman’s terms, scale back its large asset purchase program of $85 billion dollars a month. Esther George, the sole dissenter of the tapering decision and Governor of the Kansas Fed, was the guest of honor and it was nice to hear an alternate perspective of the FOMC.

Some observations:

  • The Cornell Club is kinda nice!
  • Central banking humor is abound here: Esther George’s “This week’s FOMC meeting to tapered  expectations rather than bond purchases…” was met with laughter and applause.
  • Speeches were kept short: there were 7 presenters and all kept their remarks to 10-15 minutes with a Q&A of 5-10 minutes afterwards.
  • It’s free: I walked in without wearing a suit and got a free lunch.


  • The crowd blended in with Ivy League alumni: that is to say, it was mostly old white men. 
  • People presented a lot of critique of the Federal Reserve policy actions and boundaries  but no one ever criticized the monetary policy system and regime unlike Ron Paul.
  • Despite affecting every citizen of the US and perhaps the world; there’s no way someone without extensive economics training could follow what was being said as these students prove.
  • Much less time than I expected was used to talk about tapering or succession  but more about “forward guidance” and “boundaries” of the Federal Reserve.
Also: 
Takeaway: Like the White House, the Federal Reserve has a response to whatever its policies are worthy of discussion.
Questions? Comments? Compliments (much appreciated). Follow-up? Cool link, bro? Let me know🙂
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EconFact 09/05: How to Succeed in Broadway

via Expert Vagabond

via Expert Vagabond

Yesterday I was lucky enough to get some tickets to go see “The Book of Mormon”, the hit-Broadway show that has a satirical take on the practices of the Church of Latter-Day Saints. Besides having a reputation for being really funny, they’re also known to be really expensive. 
Normally, the ticket prices are really expensive hovering around $300 (fig  1, source: Seat Geekleading to a number of ways  you can get tickets, including ticket lotteries and lining up to get standing room seats.
Broadway is a half a billion dollar industry and growing due to rising ticket prices (fig 2, source: Daily Finance). The reasons are many but it mostly has to do with higher and higher demand; increasing number tourists who visit New York, high-profile Hollywood actors joining the fray (case in point,  Hugh Jackman made over $1 million in a week just chilling on a stage), word-of-mouth from people who get seats (because people can’t afford tickets are “in love”  with the possibility of striking it big), and that shows are relying onrepeated viewings to drive sales (hey, it is proven that repeated viewings of art may increase utility with time depending on what emotional state you were originally in).
Takeaway: Paul and Chloe getting lucky Book of Mormon tickets and talking about how fantastic it was feeds back into the ticket-price-complex because it drives up demand.
Also: